The Democratic Party’s blue tsunami swept elections across the nation Tuesday night — and Democratic hopeful Ian Phillips is confident that wave will soon crash into New York’s 126th Assembly District.
A former teacher and union leader from Auburn, Phillips holds a narrow lead over Republican incumbent and Lafayette farmer and Army veteran John Lemondes, who is seeking a fourth term in the state legislature. The race is a rematch from the pair’s 2024 contest, in which Lemondes earned 55% of the vote and finished with over 8,000 more votes than Phillips.
Two years later, Phillips appears poised to flip control of a district that has been represented by Republicans for 50 years.
Phillips declared victory in the race late Tuesday evening, when the New York State Board of Elections unofficial results showed he held a 223-vote lead over Lemondes.
“I spoke to my supporters and thanked them for electing me to be the next assemblyman for the 126th district, the first Democrat in 50 years to hold that seat,” Phillips said.
But the race isn’t over just yet.
Phillips’ lead doesn’t include hundreds of outstanding absentee and affidavit ballots. The Onondaga and Cayuga County Boards of Elections can collect early mail and absentee ballots for the next six days, as long as the ballots are postmarked Nov. 3 or earlier. Absentee ballots cast by military personnel or citizens overseas are valid as long as either county’s Board of Elections receives those ballots by Nov. 16.
Across both counties, 1,162 absentee ballots were requested and mailed out to 126th Assembly District voters, according to Onondaga County Board of Elections Commissioner Kevin Ryan, a Republican.
Affidavit, or provisional, ballots are votes cast by voters who believe they are appropriately registered to vote but encounter a discrepancy in registration on Election Day. Common examples include voters who may have moved residences but not updated their current address with the board of elections, or voters whose signatures are missing from their registration.
In such cases, election officials require these voters fill out a paper ballot, sign an oath attesting they are indeed registered to vote, and seal the vote in an envelope. Voters casting affidavit ballots are also required to update their voter information to avoid a similar problem in the next electoral cycle.
Warner said affidavit votes must be reviewed one-by-one, first by senior clerks, then by election commissioners, who will ultimately determine whether each vote is valid.
“It’s going to be at least another week before this election is determined,” said Cayuga County Board of Elections Commissioner Ken Warner, a Democrat.
Lemondes has not conceded, and hasn’t given up hope that the outstanding ballots could turn the tides and propel him over Phillips.
“Two elections ago, John Mannion beat Rebecca Shiroff by ten votes in a recount that took several weeks. Remember that?” Lemondes said, referencing the 2022 election in the State Senate’s 50th District.
In that contest, Mannion, then an incumbent state senator, eked by Shiroff in a race that wasn’t decided until mid-December, when a Central New York judge ordered the election’s results be certified following a judicial review. Mannion’s successor in that district, State Senator Chris Ryan, won election that year in another tight race. Ryan in 2024 emerged from election night with just an 87-vote lead over his opponent, but that lead grew to over 1,400 votes after a tally of outstanding ballots pushed Ryan’s lead above the threshold for a recount.
A recount is triggered if a candidate’s lead amounts to less than 0.5% of the vote after all outstanding votes are counted. Phillips’ currently leads Lemondes by 0.4% of the vote, but he is confident that his margin of victory will grow beyond the recount threshold.
Phillips believes the lion’s share of those outstanding votes will only build on his lead rather than narrow it, arguing that the absentee ballots already tallied prior to Election Day favored him over Lemondes.
“I won absentees pretty handily, almost two to one, and we had a really robust plan to talk to all the folks that requested absentees,” Phillips said. “… I think it will be outside of the 0.5 recount margin at the end of the day.”
Warner, the Cayuga County commissioner, shared Phillips’ confidence.
“Twice as many Democrats ask for those ballots as Republicans, and so when we open these ballots, I believe that we’re only going to increase Mr. Phillips’ lead over Lemondes. It’s just mathematics,” Warner said.
The county boards have until Nov. 28th to certify the results, while the New York State Board of Elections has until Dec. 15th to certify the results.
Lemondes acknowledged his vote deficit and thanked voters and election workers in a statement issued Wednesday evening by campaign spokesperson Jacob Duffy, but he stopped short of conceding the race.
“I’ll give election officials the time they need to finish their work and wait for the results to be certified before making any decision about the race,” Lemondes said.
Read more of Central Current’s coverage
Phillips confident in his 126th Assembly District victory while Lemondes holds out hope in tight race
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