Through June’s primaries, John Mannion, the Democratic candidate to represent New York’s 22nd Congressional district, outpaced Republican incumbent Brandon Williams in local, individual contributions to his campaign.
The candidates’ next campaign finance filings, due by Tuesday, are likely to show Mannion closing the gap on Williams in fundraising from political action committees and national donors, experts interviewed by Central Current say.
Despite Williams outpacing Mannion in fundraising by about $1.5 million, the June filings showed Mannion raising far more money from Central New Yorkers. Mannion pulled in nearly four times as many local, individual donations and raised twice as much as Williams from such donations, Federal Elections Commission filings show.
Mannion pulled in 1,567 such contributions for $468,071.83 during this cycle. Those contributions came from 773 donors. Williams pulled in 415 such contributions for $223,386.47 over the same period. His contributions came from 193 different donors.
The district, seen by Democrats as one of the easiest House of Representatives districts to flip, encompasses the entirety of Madison and Onondaga counties, as well as portions of Cayuga, Cortland, and Oneida counties.
While Williams outpaced Mannion through the primaries in fundraising from national sources, Utica University political science professor Luke Perry expects Mannion to close that gap in the October filings. Perry has extensive experience researching New York’s 22nd Congressional District.
He said the new disclosures will likely show Democrats funneling significant national money into Mannions’ coffers, partially because they see the race as vital to regaining control of the House of Representatives. It is also a winnable seat, Perry noted, because registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district.
“NY-22 is in this cycle just about as coveted, at least on the Democratic side, as any other race,” Perry said.
Leaders in the Democratic party, including NY governor Kathy Hochul, are vocally targeting NY-22 as a key district to flip in their efforts to win back control of the House.
Perry said that, though incumbents like Williams have won re-election in approximately 90% of races since World War II, redistricting has made him exceptionally vulnerable.
“The partisan demographics of the district have changed significantly under his feet,” Perry said.
Experts say Williams has seen a large number of out-of-district donations for the same reason, said Syracuse University political science professor Steven White.
GOP leaders like Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House of Representatives, and former speaker Kevin McCarthy have traveled to CNY in the past 14 months to help Williams fundraise. PACs for New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise have funneled thousands to William, who has also received maximum contributions from out-of-state billionaires such as real estate mogul Harlan Crow and his family.
The significant outpouring of national money has dwarfed Williams’ local contributions.
Despite disparities in individual contributions between both candidates, neither Williams’ nor Mannion’s war chest is funded primarily by local donors.
Perry said disparities between local and national contributions in a race like NY-22 result from two factors: first, that only a few Congressional races are worth funneling money into by the national parties, and second that donating through digital platforms has given more discretion to the parties to direct resources into the races they deem need it most.
The vast majority of Congressional contests are not competitive, Perry said, excluding around 40 races that are critical to determining control of the House. This leads to both parties directing their fundraising efforts into the few dozen competitive districts in which the money can tip the scales.
Apps like ActBlue for Democrats and WinRed for Republicans, Perry added, also allow donors to contribute funds without earmarking them for specific recipients, trusting the parties to direct funds toward whomever they deem most necessary.
That influx of national money into Congressional campaigns handpicked by the national parties demonstrates the increasingly partisan state of elections down electoral tickets, White said. He added that voters now perceive their party’s control of Congress as crucial to the success of the presidential candidate they support.
“Certainly we’ve seen politics becoming increasingly nationalized,” White said.
Editor’s note: Central Current calculated local donations by filtering the candidates’ individual itemized contributions, which are publicly available on the Federal Elections Commission website. Central Current filtered the donations by the zip code of the contributor. Central Current used all zip codes included in the following counties: Onondaga, Oneida, Madison, Cayuga and Cortland counties.
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