National and local experts expect New York’s 22nd Congressional District to stay blue. John Mannion, pictured here on Election Night 2024, believes the 22nd Congressional District is still a heavily contested seat. . Credit: Surya Vaidy | Central Current

Editor’s note: This story is part of CNY Decides, a collaboration between Central Current and WAER to demystify the political process and bring you the stories and information you’ll remember in the voting booth in 2026. The series will take readers inside real-time shifts in the local political landscape, with a focus on how upcoming elections will impact our region. The collaboration will run through May and June 2026.

National political analysts are projecting an uncompetitive midterm election in New York’s 22nd Congressional District, but three candidates vying for the seat are gearing up for a battle.

Despite national pundits’ predictions, Rep. John Mannion, Republican challenger Kailee Buller, and independent candidate Will Staton each told Central Current that they believe the fight for the 22nd Congressional District will be a close race. Neither Mannion nor Buller are facing primary challenges but the potential three-way race will likely take center stage in November. 

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Mannion, a Democrat from Geddes, first won office in 2024, when he defeated former Rep. Brandon Williams in a contest that saw millions of dollars in campaign contributions from around the country flood into Central New York. The Democratic Party at the time narrowed in on the district, considering it one of the easiest congressional seats to flip in the 2024 elections.

Mannion won with 54% of the vote to Williams’ 45%, becoming the first Democrat to represent the district in nearly a decade. The three races preceding Mannion’s were similarly close, with each being decided by a 10% margin or less.

Kailee Buller, the Republican candidate for New York’s 22nd Congressional District. Credit: Courtesy of Kailee Buller

But national pundits and political analysis groups are projecting an easy path to victory for Mannion this cycle. Two non-partisan election thinktanks, the Cook Political Report and 538, have both designated NY-22 as a safely blue district. A third, Ballotpedia, in 2020, 2022 and 2024 identified NY-22 as a national battleground race but did not issue the same designation in 2026.

Recent statewide redistricting efforts that granted Democrats a majority in the district and the influence of President Donald Trump may net Democrats an advantage, said Luke Perry, a professor of political science at Utica University.

“Particularly this cycle, the Democrats have an advantage with Donald Trump in office,” Perry said. “One thing we’ve seen over the past decade in New York, generally, is when Trump is in the presidency, Democrats do well, and so I think Rep. Mannion is in a strong position to be re-elected.”

In an interview with Central Current, Mannion said he’s not concerned with pundits’ projections and puts more stock in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s assessment of the race. That political action committee designated the 22nd Congressional District a frontline district in the Democrats’ fight to flip control of the House of Representatives.

“I’m on that list because I believe that they understand the history of the district, and it’s a key seat,” Mannion said. “This is a seat we have to have if we are going to take back the majority. So from that perspective, this is a priority.”

Though recent redistricting efforts led by state Democrats shifted the district’s borders and gave Democrats an advantage within the district, Mannion believes that shift doesn’t fully account for the diversity of political opinions within the district. 

Recent history also suggests the Democrats won’t have a cake walk to victory. The party hasn’t won a midterm contest in NY-22 since 1978, meaning Mannion will be the first Democrat to achieve that in nearly half a century, though Mannion said he wasn’t too concerned with that history.

Traditionally, the minority party sees a surge in midterm elections. 

In 20 midterm elections since 1946, the president’s party lost seats in Congress in 18 of those contests. That trend has held true even for presidents who enjoyed a high approval rating at the time of their midterm elections.

When a president’s approval rating is below 50%, the outlook becomes even more grim for the party in power — the party of every president beneath that threshold lost House seats in midterms.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating since January has hovered around 40%. That metric portends significant losses in the House for Republicans when compared to how other presidents with similarly low approval ratings fared:

  • In 1950, President Harry Truman’s approval rating was 39%, and Democrats lost 29 House seats.
  • In 2006, President George W. Bush’s approval rating was 38%, and Republicans lost 30 House seats.
  • In 2014, President Barack Obama’s approval rating was 40%, and Democrats lost 13 House seats.
  • In 2018, Trump’s approval rating was 38%, and Republicans lost 40 seats.
  • In 2022, President Joe Biden’s approval rating was 40%, and Democrats lost 9 seats.

That outlook doesn’t bode well for incumbent Republicans, let alone challengers seeking to flip a Democratic House seat.

Buller, the Republican, isn’t discouraged by statistics suggesting a blue wave in November. An Auburn resident, she worked under Trump in both of his administrations, most recently serving as Chief of Staff of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

Buller in February left that post to return to Auburn and in March challenged Mannion for his seat. In an interview with Central Current, Buller said she believes the district is more competitive than national pundits understand. 

“I agree with John Mannion, it’s absolutely in play, and I’m jumping in and it’s going to become more and more in play,” Buller said. “I just feel so excited, and I feel in my bones it’s a battleground.

Like Mannion, Buller is well aware of the region’s history of close congressional contests. Enlivened by grassroots excitement that quickly got her enough petitions to appear on the ballot, and a subsequent influx of campaign funds, Buller believes the race for NY-22 is just beginning.

Buller said she has reached out to the Cook Political Report multiple times to make her case that the NY-22 race reclassified from its current “solid blue” now that the Republicans have a long-term challenger.

She and Staton will likely try to pick off the district’s independent voters. 

“Yes, Democrats have a 30,000-person voter advantage. That is a fact,” Buller said. “There are 150,000 people who don’t identify with either party, and I’m the better candidate for them.” 

Staton, the independent, seeking to appear on the ballot in November, is aiming to shake up the status quo with a campaign centered around a revolt against the two-party system that has largely governed the U.S. for over two centuries.

A transplant from Mississippi, Staton is running on a vision of united America, which he believes starts with reforming the nation’s current political paradigm. On his campaign website, Staton briefly outlines his priorities to place “people over party,” which include ending gerrymandering, limiting money in politics, and imposing term limits for elected officials.

Perry, the political scientist, said that in other years, Staton and Buller may have more prospects, but not in a race that is likely to become a referendum on the presidency.

In a midterm season as contentious as the current, Perry believes Buller’s experience in the Trump administration will be a non-starter for her in a Democratic-majority district.

“We’ve seen nationally, and I suspect if we were to poll regionally, there’s not great sentiment in terms of the direction of the country and where we are,” Perry said. “So that obviously doesn’t bode well for the party in power.”

Likewise, because of the stakes of the election, Perry said that the typical nuance that might traditionally allow a space for Staton to make inroads with liberal voters aren’t present in the 2026 race.

“I don’t think Democrats are going to be inclined to do anything this cycle that will help Republicans and further embolden President Trump’s ability to use his power,” Perry said. “particularly with a Republican held Congress.”

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Patrick McCarthy is a staff reporter at Central Current covering government and politics. A graduate of Syracuse University’s Maxwell and Newhouse Schools, McCarthy was born and raised in Syracuse and...